Official UK procurement notice
Future Transport Modelling - Strategic Advice
Authority: Transport for Wales (Public body)·Consortium: 2 public authorities
What is being bought
Published requirement descriptionTransport for Wales (TfW) is undertaking preliminary market engagement to inform the development of a potential future procurement for the provision of strategic transport modelling advisory services.
TfW currently maintains and operates a suite of multi-modal regional transport models covering South East Wales, South West and Mid Wales, and North Wales. These models are used to support the appraisal of transport interventions, investment decisions, policy development and future scenario testing across Wales.
The proposed requirement, referred to as Future Transport Modelling – Strategic Advice, would provide independent expert advice to help shape the future direction of TfW's transport modelling capability. The successful supplier would be expected to assess the current modelling landscape, identify opportunities for innovation and improvement, advise on approaches to addressing future uncertainty, and develop a phased roadmap for the evolution of TfW's modelling capability.
The scope is anticipated to include advice relating to:
- The evolution of TfW's existing regional transport models;
- Opportunities for innovation, including emerging modelling approaches, artificial intelligence, big-data analytics and open-source solutions;
- Scenario planning and uncertainty analysis; and
- The development of a future transport modelling roadmap.
The requirement is intended to provide strategic advice only. TfW will retain responsibility for decision-making and implementation through its existing transport modelling arrangements.
CPV: Data analysis services · Feasibility study, advisory service, analysis · Research consultancy services · Transport systems consultancy services
The lotProcurement structure
single lot · no lot value publishedPipeline intelligence · planning stage: how this market runs before the tender is published
How Transport for Wales buys Consultative engineering and construction services (CPV 7131), and who usually turns up
Transport for Wales’s published record next to the market for the same work. Frameworks and DPS are left out: they draw different bid counts. Whole-market view: Consultative engineering and construction services (CPV 7131) →
How the contest usually goes
Winner shares use published awards; bid and price charts use contested lots.
i
How often small and medium firms win.
Share of awards where the winner’s size is known.
The counts under this question show how many awards have a known supplier size.
Small firms have won here. Neither number says whether you qualify; it describes who has been winning.
i
How often local firms win similar work.
Winners with a registered address in the delivery region, out of awards with a known address.
Local means the winner is registered in the region where that award was delivered.
A local branch does not count if the registered address is elsewhere.
Most of this buyer’s recorded winners were registered in the region where that award was delivered.
i
How long buyers here take to decide after bids close.
Middle value in days from the bid deadline to the award date, on competitions that published both.
Only decided tenders count, so slow ones still waiting are not in.
Half of these awards have an award date within 40 days of the bid deadline.
i
How often work is awarded with no recorded rival.
Direct awards and tenders where every published lot count shows one bid.
Both shares are minimums: some awards have no bid count.
Thin markets produce this too; it is not proof of a tailored specification.
Direct awards or one recorded bid are common here. Check the route before spending time on a bid.
How many bids did past lots attract?
i
How many bids past lots received.
Each colour is a bid-count range. Only competed lots with a published count are included.
Past bids do not predict this tender.
1 bid7% / 14%
2–352% / 24%
4–628% / 29%
7+14% / 33%
How did awards compare with estimates?
i
Where winning prices landed against estimates.
Each colour shows awards below, close to or above the published estimate, one lot at a time.
Past prices are a guide, not a bid price.
Below estimate63% / 42%
Within ±2%13% / 43%
Above estimate25% / 15%
Assess each lot i
What past awards tell you about each lot.
See the forecast, this buyer’s earlier suppliers and firms with relevant wins.
No supplier is confirmed as a bidder.
i
What past awards tell you about each lot.
See the forecast, this buyer’s earlier suppliers and firms with relevant wins.
No supplier is confirmed as a bidder.
Open a lot for its forecast, this buyer’s previous supplier and possible competitors, from published award history, not a bid list
Lot #1CPV 7131Published estimate£75k
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How many bids this lot may attract.
The forecast uses similar past competitions. The bar shows either that forecast or past bid counts; the line below says which.
Each lot shows its own forecast based on its own category; forecasts for different lots of the same notice are not comparative. The bar shows 452 past lots.
A forecast, not a list of bidders.
1 bid14%
2–324%
4–629%
7+33%
i
Where the award price may land.
The forecast uses similar awards and the buyer’s estimate. The band covers the middle half of likely prices.
No comparable awards for this lot yet.
A statistical guide from past awards, not a price to bid.
Who has supplied this buyer on similar work? i
Who has done similar work for this buyer.
Past contracts are matched by buyer, title and type of work.
A past supplier may not bid again.
i
Who has done similar work for this buyer.
Past contracts are matched by buyer, title and type of work.
A past supplier may not bid again.
No earlier contract of this buyer matches this lot on the published record.
Who could compete for this lot? i
Who could compete for this lot?
Firms with relevant past wins. On a framework, we show firms on that agreement.
None is confirmed as a bidder.
i
Who could compete for this lot?
Firms with relevant past wins. On a framework, we show firms on that agreement.
None is confirmed as a bidder.
Candidate suppliers for this notice have not been worked out yet, so this is not a verdict that nobody fits.
About this data
- Source. Official UK public procurement notices (Find a Tender), reused under the Open Government Licence v3.0. New notices arrive through the day; the figures are rebuilt nightly.
- Two views, kept apart. The authority’s own track record and the wider market for the same kind of work sit side by side and are never mixed. Where the local picture is too thin, a figure widens to a broader market and says which one it used.
- Forecasts are labelled. The price forecast and its range, possible competitors and the earlier-work matches are our estimates from past awards: not published facts, not win chances and not price advice. Official notices do not say who is bidding.
- Every figure shows what it rests on. Not every notice publishes a bid count, a value or a delivery region, so each figure carries the number of records behind it, and one built on few records is marked as such. The on a figure explains it; the counting rules are in the methodology. Spotted something wrong? Tell us.
Procedure terms & legal framework
From the official record- Legal basis
- UKPGA · 2023/54 Procurement Act 2023
- Procurement category
- Services
- Notice status
- Planned procurement
- Procurement threshold
- Below threshold
- Regulatory regime
- Standard
- Commercial structure
- Stand-alone contract (no framework)
- Competition type
- Competitive procedure
- GPA / WTO covered
- Unspecified in notice
- Recurring procurement
- Unspecified in notice
- First published
- 2 Oct 2026, 08:41 BST
- Last source update
- 2 Oct 2026, 08:41 BST
- Authority reference
C001358.00- FTS notice number
2026/S 000-093091- Latest notice
- Preliminary market engagement notice (UK2)
- Classification (CPV)
- Delivery area
- Official registry OCID
ocds-h6vhtk-077f2aFind a Tender
How it was run
Official notice- Submission deadline
- —
Timeline
2 Oct 2026 → 1 Mar 2027 · 4 dates- Planning notice published24 days ago2 Oct 2026, 08:41 BST
- Today27 Oct 2026
- Market engagementin 5 days1 Nov 2026, 23:59 GMT
Transport for Wales is seeking feedback from organisations with relevant expertise to support the development of this potential future requirement.
The purpose of this market engagement exercise is to test the proposed scope, delivery model, contract principles and anticipated deliverables, and to better understand market capability and interest. TfW is seeking feedback on the proposed scope, delivery model and contract principles to help ensure the requirement is clear, practical, deliverable and aligned with market capability. Feedback will also be used to understand how the proposed arrangement would operate alongside TfW's existing Regional Transport Modelling contracts and to assess supplier interest in any future opportunity.
Suppliers wishing to participate in the engagement exercise are invited to request a copy of the draft scope and questionnaire by emailing: supplychain@tfw.wales.
The deadline for requesting the draft scope and questionnaire is Friday 30th October 2026, and the deadline for submitting feedback is Sunday 1st November 2026.
Responses will be used to inform the development of the requirement and any future procurement strategy. Participation in this engagement exercise will not provide any advantage or disadvantage in any future procurement process.
- Tender notice expectedin 45 days11 Dec 2026, 23:59 GMT
- Contract startsin 124 days1 Mar 2027
Notice history
1 event · 1 release on Find a Tender- Preliminary market engagement notice published2 Oct 2026, 08:41 BSTUK2
Commercial outcome & contract awards
Pipeline notice- Awards (0)
- No award published
- Contracts (0)
- No contract published
- Bid statistics
- No aggregate bid statistics published
Contracting authority & participating public bodies
2 public bodies on the noticeConsortium members and other public bodies
- Transport for Wales Rail LtdContracting authorityPublic authority - sub-central governmentWelsh devolved regulations apply
Official documents & specifications (1)
Official links; attachments are not copiedNotices published for this procedure
- Preliminary market engagement notice Preliminary market engagement notice on Find a Tender